The welfare effects of trade--论文代写范文精选

贸易的好处也高于静态稳定状态的类经济体,在动态经济中，公司异质性问题从贸易中获利。评估收益的大小需要使用数据校准模型。进口渗透比率是贸易一体化水平的基础，可以计算和福利的影响。下面的paper代写范文进行阐述。

To address this question, the paper shows that the welfare effects of trade can be decomposed into two terms. First, a static term that is identical to the gains from trade in Melitz (2003) (assuming a Pareto productivity distribution) and can be expressed as the same function of the import penetration ratio and trade elasticity that gives the gains from trade in Arkolakis, Costinot and Rodr´ıguez-Clare (2012). Second, a dynamic term that depends on trade only through the growth rate of consumption per capita. The dynamic term is strictly increasing in the growth rate because dynamic selection causes a positive externality by raising the productivity of future entrants.7 Since trade raises growth, the welfare decomposition implies that the gains from trade in this paper are strictly higher than in Melitz (2003). Conditional on the observed import penetration ratio and trade elasticity, the gains from trade are also strictly higher than in the class of static steady state economies considered by Arkolakis, Costinot and Rodr´ıguez-Clare (2012).8 It follows that in dynamic economies firm heterogeneity matters for the gains from trade.

To assess the magnitude of the gains from trade-induced dynamic selection I calibrate the model using U.S. data. As in Arkolakis, Costinot and Rodr´ıguez-Clare (2012) the import penetration ratio is a sufficient statistic for the level of trade integration and the welfare effects of trade can be calculated in terms of a small number of observables and parameters. In addition to the import penetration ratio and trade elasticity, the calibration uses the rate at which new firms are created, the population growth rate, the intertemporal elasticity of substitution, the discount rate and the elasticity of substitution between goods. The baseline calibration implies that U.S. growth is 11 percent higher than it would be under autarky. More importantly, the increase in the dynamic selection rate triples the gains from trade relative to the static steady state economies considered by Arkolakis, Costinot and Rodr´ıguez-Clare (2012). The finding that dynamic selection is quantitatively important for the gains from trade is extremely robust. For plausible parameter variations the dynamic selection effect always at least doubles the gains from trade.

As well as contributing to the debate over the gains from trade, this paper is closely related to the endogenous growth literature. Open economy endogenous growth theories with homogeneous firms find that the effects of trade on growth in a single sector economy depend on scale effects and international knowledge spillovers (Rivera-Batiz and Romer 1991; Grossman and Helpman 1991). By contrast, neither scale effects nor international knowledge spillovers are necessary for trade to raise growth through dynamic selection. To highlight the novelty of the dynamic selection mechanism I assume that there are no international knowledge spillovers and I show that the equilibrium growth rate does not depend on population size – there are no scale effects. Thus, this paper implies neither the counterfactual prediction that larger economies grow faster (Jones 1995a) nor the semi-endogenous growth prediction that population growth is the only source of long-run growth (Jones 1995b). Scale effects are absent from this paper because both the productivity distribution and the mass of varieties produced are endogenous. In equilibrium a larger population leads to a proportional increase in the mass of varieties produced (unlike in quality ladders growth models), but since the creation of new goods does not reduce the cost of future entry (unlike in expanding varieties growth models) the growth rate is unaffected.

Selection based growth in closed economies has been studied in recent work on idea flows by Luttmer (2007, 2012), Alvarez, Buera and Lucas (2008), Lucas and Moll (2013) and Perla and Tonetti (2014). The model developed in this paper extends the idea flows literature along a number of dimensions. First, it allows for the free entry of firms in an open economy. By contrast, Lucas and Moll (2013) and Perla and Tonetti (2014) assume a fixed mass of producers, while Alvarez, Buera and Lucas (2008) use an Eaton and Kortum (2002) framework that abstracts from firms and entry. Luttmer (2007) includes entry, but focuses on how post-entry productivity shocks shape the equilibrium productivity distribution and does not give a complete characterization of the balanced growth path or analyze the effects of trade. By abstracting from post-entry firm level productivity shocks this paper identifies the determinants of aggregate growth and shows that the free entry condition is central in determining the relationship between trade and growth. 

In addition, this paper introduces a new methodology for modeling knowledge spillovers. Previous theories of idea flows assume learning results from random matching with other agents. Applied to this paper, learning through random matching implies the productivity distribution of entrants is identical to the productivity distribution of incumbent firms. Instead, I take a reduced form approach in which the productivity of entrants depends on the location of the incumbent firm productivity distribution and a random component. When productivity is drawn from a Pareto distribution both approaches lead to the same relationship between trade, growth and welfare on the balanced growth path. However, in general, the reduced form approach offers a more flexible and tractable way to model technology diffusion and in Section 5 I show how this facilitates extending the technology diffusion model to allow for international knowledge spillovers, alternative productivity 4 distributions, frontier technology growth and firm level productivity dynamics. The finding that trade raises growth by increasing the dynamic selection rate is robust to these extensions.

Most closely related to this paper is the work on trade, growth and selection by Baldwin and RobertNicoud (2008), Alvarez, Buera and Lucas (2011) and Perla, Tonetti and Waugh (2014). Baldwin and RobertNicoud (2008) show that incorporating firm heterogeneity into an expanding variety growth model leads to an ambiguous effect of trade on growth that depends on the extent of international knowledge spillovers. However, since knowledge spillovers affect entry costs instead of entrants’ productivity the model has three counter-factual implications. 

First, the equilibrium productivity distribution is time invariant. Second, entry costs decline relative to labor costs as the economy grows. Third, average firm size decreases as the economy grows. Alvarez, Buera and Lucas (2011) show that international knowledge spillovers increase growth in an Eaton and Kortum (2002) trade model, but assume that the rate of technology diffusion is independent of agents’ optimization decisions and do not model firm level behavior. Perla, Tonetti and Waugh (2014) develop an open economy extension of Perla and Tonetti (2014) in which growth is driven by technology diffusion between incumbent firms, but the mass of firms is fixed. They find that trade can raise or lower growth depending on how the costs of searching for a better technology are specified, but since the mass of firms is exogenous they do not include the free entry condition which, as this paper shows, causes a positive effect of trade on growth.(paper代写)

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