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Suspicious interaction between bond yield and its relationship with exchange rate

2021-11-15 来源: 51Due教员组 类别: Essay范文

很容易发现,不同的国家有不同的债券利率,这通常与货币有关。这可以用利率平价理论来解释:两国利率之差等于远期汇率与即期汇率之差。保罗·克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)提出的一个事实就是将这一理论具体化的一个例子;他解释了为什么“美国政府债券的利率远高于欧洲债券”。一个直接的答案是,购买美国债券的风险高于购买德国债券,因此风险溢价更高。然而,由于美国政府不太可能违约,克鲁格曼将债券收益率的差异归因于两种债券的计价货币,并提出“未来十年美元兑欧元将下跌的预期”。


It is easy to find that different countries have different bond interest rates, which is usually related to currency. This can be explained by the interest rate parity theory: the difference between the interest rates of the two countries is equal to the difference between the forward exchange rate and the spot exchange rate. A fact put forward by Paul Krugman is an example of concretizing this theory; He explained why "the interest rate of US government bonds is much higher than that of European bonds". A direct answer is that buying US bonds is riskier than buying German bonds, so the risk premium is higher. However, since the US government is highly unlikely to default, Krugman attributed the difference in bond yields to the denomination currencies of the two bonds and put forward "the expectation that the US dollar will fall against the euro in the next decade", because the economic performance of the United States is relatively stronger than that of Germany or the European Union. ("thinking")

 

The second idea may help to question this new discovery, which is logically meaningless. If people expect the dollar to depreciate against the euro, they will sell dollars and buy euros, leading to the depreciation of the dollar. However, US Treasury yields and the relative value of the dollar (Klein, "suspicious relationship") rose at the same time.

 

Therefore, the difference between the sovereign borrowing costs of Germany and the United States does not tell us the future exchange rate or the expectation of the future exchange rate, but a new reflection on the old theory, that is, the current rate of return can be used to calculate the forward curve of the exchange rate (Klein, "suspicious relationship").


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