The Global and Local in Phillips Curve--论文代写范文精选

对于国民经济的货币工资变化率。经济学家欧文费雪也发现之间的负相关，关于产品价格的通货膨胀率和失业率的水平。下面的essay代写范文继续进行讨论。

Abstract 
  The debate over the Phillips Curve - as the relation between level of unemployment rate and inflation rate - in historical economics is shortly reviewed. By using the analysis in the Extreme Value Theory, i.e.: the rank order statistics the unemployment and inflation data over countries from various regions are observed. The calculations brought us to conjecture that there exists the general pattern that could lead from the relation between unemployment and inflation rate. However, the difference patterns as observed in the Phillips Curve might could be reflected from the range of values of the local variables of the incorporated model. 
Keywords: rank order statistics, phillips curve, inflation, unemployment rate

 Introduction 
  Phillips Curve was originally introduced in [6] and conjectured from the empirical findings of A. W. Phillips to show the relation between the rate of unemployment and the rate of change in money wages in a national economy. This relation, however is not originally discovered by Phillips, since economist Irving Fisher has also discovered the negative correlation between the rate of goods-price inflation and the level of unemployment [2]. Theoretical explorations of economics originated in [8] then developed more advanced postulate modifying the curve to depict the relation between the inflation rate and the rate of unemployment. 

  The expectation is thus to have analytical tool for economic policy-makers related to the various levels of unemployment and price stability. It was shown that there exist negative correlation between the rate of inflation and the rate of unemployment [8]. Hypothetically, when the unemployment rate is lower - shown by the high absorption of workers in labor market leading to the higher demand for goods - while the firms would tend to spend higher money on wages implies higher levels of prices, and vice versa. There have been wide aspects conforming this negative relation between unemployment and inflation rate with those theories known as Keynesian economic perspectives [4]. 

  The choice of the policy-makers can thus be simplified as to accept either the adjustment of inflation rate or unemployment. However, latter empirical findings regarding to the negative relation between the two important variables do not always happening. There were cases where higher unemployment could lead to higher inflation (or vice versa) as occured in the 1970s economy of some countries for the hike of world oil price. More and more facts were revealed showing that the postulate is not fulfilled in general over countries and national economies. Each observed countries exhibit different patterns of Phillips Curve as shwon in figure [1]. Thus in the long history of macroeconomics, Phillips Curve has been changed and modified to conform a lot of economic perspectives and streams, be it those of built upon the work on Keynes’ employment theory [5] and its later proponents, or the monetarists’ approaches and criticisms in the concept of the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU). The latter is introduced by economist Milton Friedman in his seminal paper [3] introducing the concept on the rate of unemployment when the rate of wage inflation is stable. Some recent economic discourses related to Phillips Curve have also discussed the non-linear Keynesian macrodynamics related to the monetary policies [1].

  It is interesting to see the various values as shown in the table. However, 7 it is much more interesting to ponder over the detail data for each countries as shown in figure [3]. From the figure we could see apparently that all countries from Asia region have smaller values of θ while most european as well as the United States and Australia exhibit larger one θ > 0.6. As we recognized that the θ represents the localilites in the probabilistic relation between the unemployment and the rate of the price index over countries, we have the apparent similarities shown by countries regarded to the economic regions. 

  The different economic regions could obviously represents the various specific characteristic of social living as well as economic policies ruled by each governments and markets in general. The different values of the variable is also actually shown in figure [2] for the asian countries are drawn in dotted lines while the other contries with solid ones. Thus, it is obvious there is generality expressed by the calculation with the global function and coefficient β and particular social and economic living on each localities are shown by the local variable θ. Here we can say that there exists actually relation between the price index and the rate of the unemployment over countries in general but yet, there are levels of localities that yield the differences as we plotted the twos in conventional Phillips Curve.

 Concluding Remarks 
  We use an application from the extreme value theory, i.e.: the rank order statistics to see the generality that is implicit in the relation between two macroeconomic variabels: the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. Both have been widely discussed in the representation of Phillips Curve in economics. The rank order statistics is an important tools that can be used in order to extract some information in data that might not be obvious by using conventional point of views. （essay代写)

  Out observation with the data representing various countries in diverse social and economic regions has lead to the existence of general pattern that could see the generality of the two variables in the built model: one as the global variable and the other representing the uniqueness that might become the source of the varisites in the classical representation of the Phillips Curve. Interestingly, we could see that there is conjecture that the local variables calculated over the data set from countries converge to the distinguishment between countries with different socio-economic regions: those representing the Asian countries with Australia, European and the United States. This might lead us to the more comprehensive understanding on why some different socio-economic region might reveal unique and particular handlings on social and economic policy while facing the general and similar problems.（essay代写)

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