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北美作业代写:Future climate

2018-03-31 来源: 51due教员组 类别: Paper范文

下面为大家整理一篇优秀的paper代写范文- Future climate,供大家参考学习,这篇论文讨论了未来气候。未来的气候将如何变化?对于这一重要问题,我们可以在预测未来温室气体和气溶胶排放量的基础上,通过气候模式来模拟。结果表明,当温室气体排放率大于或等于当前排放率时,气候变化很有可能比20世纪观测到的还要剧烈。即使立即减少温室气体排放量,将温室气体浓度维持在目前水平,气候变化也将持续几个世纪。

Future climate,未来气候,cs代写,paper代写,北美作业代写

How will the climate of the 21st century change? For this important issue, we can predict future greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions based on climate model simulation. The simulations show that climate change is likely to be more severe than observed in the 20th century when the greenhouse gas emissions rate is greater than or equal to the current rate of emissions. Even if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced immediately, greenhouse gas concentrations will remain at current levels and climate change will continue for centuries. This "inertia" of climate change stems from the common role of many factors, such as the heat capacity of the oceans, and the thousands of years needed for atmospheric circulation to reach a new equilibrium.

Specifically, according to the climate model, the global temperature will increase at a rate of 0.2 percent per decade over the next 20 years, within a reasonable range of emissions. Since the climate system's response to current atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases is lagging, about half of the recent warming will affect future changes.

Despite this, the long-term warming of the 21st century is still strongly influenced by greenhouse gas emissions, and scientists are simulating the future climate in a variety of scenarios. Global temperatures will rise by 1.8 to 4.0 degrees in various emissions scenarios. The higher the emissions, the higher the warming. In terms of regional influence, scientists are more convinced than ever that form of future climate change will be similar to the climate change observed over the past 50 years, only the range of changes will be larger than before.

The results also suggest that as the planet warms, removing excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through the natural processes of land and oceans will be less effective. Warming will cause more emissions of carbon dioxide to stay in the atmosphere, which in turn will accelerate global warming, an important positive feedback effect in the carbon cycle. Although model also think of the performance of the carbon cycle change for positive feedback, the degree to which the effects of climate change but they are still not sure, because it depends on many other factors, such as plants or soil to absorb carbon how to change with climate change, and we don't know much about it.

Simulations also predict that climate change will affect the physical and chemical nature of the oceans. Estimates of sea-level rise of 30cm to 40cm in the 21st century will also depend on greenhouse gas emissions. About 60 percent of sea level rise is caused by ocean thermal expansion. The chemical properties of the ocean are also affected: increased concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will make the water more acidic.

According to the forecast, the most dramatic climate change is likely to happen in the polar regions, including high latitudes soil temperature rise sharply, increased the depth of permafrost melts, and the arctic basin of summer sea ice decrease. In lower latitudes, more intense heat waves, rainfall and stronger but possibly less frequent hurricanes and typhoons will likely occur. The extent of hurricanes and typhoons is uncertain.

We live in a time when nature and humanity together affect the evolution of earth and the life of the earth. Unfortunately, our climate simulations seem to be impotent for predictions of a century later, and how responsive are natural systems and human societies to climate change? Our understanding of this also adds to the uncertainty of the forecast. But one thing is certain: plants, animals and humans will have to bear the consequences of climate change for at least 1,000 years.

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