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美国作业代写:The Change of Weather and Climate Extremes and Their Relations with Global Warming

2017-07-03 来源: 51due教员组 类别: Paper范文

下面为大家整理一篇优秀的paper代写范文- The Change of Weather and Climate Extremes and Their Relations with Global Warming,供大家参考学习,这篇论文讨论了极端气候与全球变暖的关系。极端气候包括雷暴、龙卷风、暴雨、强风、沙尘暴、风暴潮等极端天气现象。这些极端的天气现象一般持续时间很短,但破坏力却非常惊人,对经济和环境都会造成很大的影响。而研究表明,全球变暖会导致极端天气现象的增加。

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Definition

According to the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), extreme weather events means that the weather extremes in a certain place or region not frequently or rarely happened in terms of the points of Statistical distribution. The definition of “not frequently happen “or” rarely happen” is inconsistent. Generally speaking, its rate is equal to or less than 10th percentage (or more than 90th percentage). According to this definition, the features of extreme weather events are different depended on the places or regions. Extreme climate events means that the average condition of many weather events in a certain period is extreme (e.g., the precipitation in a single quarter). This kind of average condition is not only affected by the variable’s changes in long term but also variance’s changes (Hoerling & Kumar, 1997). For example, Figure one states that the influence of extreme temperature by increase of average temperature(global warming) and the increase of variance (the squared value of average deviation), the temperature often presents normal distribution. However, this kind of normal distribution appears non-stationarity and instability is caused by the changes of average or variance. First of all, the increase of average can cause new record-breaking high temperature value (Figure 1, a) but in this condition, variability doesn’t change. According to the Figure 1a, the range between the coldest temperature and the warmest temperature does not change but only the normal distribution moves to the high temperature which causes more high-temperature weather and record-breaking high temperature weather than previous one under the average climate condition. If the average does not change but variability increases, the probability and absolute value of cold and hot extreme events will appear increase(Figure 1, b).Sometimes climate average and variability both happen to change(Figure 1, c). This condition can affect the probability of cold and hot extreme event. In this example, the hot extreme events will happen more frequently but cold event will appear greatly reduce. The average and variance both happen to change; they have different combination which makes different consequence (Solomon, 2007).

Therefore, even if the changes of extreme weather and climate events had been proved, if not carry on special analysis and research, general condition is hard to make sure of this kind of change is caused by average or variance or both of them. In addition, the nondeterminacy of rate of change of average also brings difficulty to confirm the changes of variance. Because all statistical variable of variance are totally depends on average.

The conditions will become more complex if the temperature does not appear normal distribution, arid climate in particular. For example, the changes of average total precipitation along with the change of rain frequency or the changes of distribution pattern (including its variability). All these changes can influence all aspects of precipitation extremes including precipitation intensity.

There are no united or standard classifications of weather and climate extreme events at present. In terms of spatial and temporal scale, the weather and climate extreme events can divide into meso-and micro-scale and large scale. The former is including thunderstorm, tornado, rainstorm, strong breeze, sand storm, storm surge, etc. These extreme weather events last very short but their collapsing force are so strong. According to the data of WMO, the extreme weather events cause about $200 million in agricultural loss every year all over the world. In America, the numbers of death caused by thunder and lightning is far more than the sum of death caused by hurricane, tornado and winter monsoon in the average year. Large-scale weather events and extreme climate extreme events main are tropical cyclone, mid-latitude storm, monsoon, heat, wave, chilling damage, snowstorm, drought, Nino phenomenon, etc. These extreme events can last for several days, several months or several seasons on a large scale which cause great influences to board region, hemisphere or even global society, economics and environment. Asia is one of the most frequently regions suffered natural disasters (Noji, 1991).

Change and Relations

The research on the changes of weather and climate extreme events and their relations with the changes of global climate are facing two main difficulties. The one is that lack of enough data particular in lacking of the data series relatively high long term temporal-spatial resolution. Because spatial and temporal scale of many weather and climate extreme events are relative small. The other reason is that pattern discrimination scale does not match the data of consequence of pattern verification. The former is relative fine and the latter is relative rough. So the current condition can not confirm the correctness of stimulated pattern or predicted extreme events. The research of the changes extreme events are still staying initial research stage at present. According to the third assessment report by first working team of IPCC, most important consequences can summarized four aspects (table 1). Firstly, the probability of extreme warm days increases and extreme cold days decreases at the same time. Secondly, the opportunity that drought disaster has increase in continent hinterland of middle latitudes in summer. Thirdly, lots of regions appear more powerful precipitation event such as torrential rain. Fourthly, the maximum wind speed strength of tropical cyclone increases. The report further points out that even if the amplitude of EI Nino does not change or change a little, global warming still probably causes drought and rainstorm to own greater extreme value, and increases the opportunity that appear drought and water logging during EI Nino in lost of regions (Vuille, Werner & Keimig, 2003).

Daily range of surface temperature  Continent decreases from 1950 to 2000, the rate of minimum noctuornal temperature is increasing twice as far as the highest daytime temperature

The forecast of weather and climate extreme events in the future 100 years are mainly according to the climate pattern. Before making the forecast, the experts should compare with the stimulated consequences and reality to ensure the reliability and dependability and at the same time should analysis the probability of forecast consequence in terms of physics. Table 2 is the forecast of weather and climate extreme events and their influences in the future 100 years. Form the table, it is easy to see that hot days and high-temperature weather appear to increase in almost all continent regions. The obvious region is the decreasing soil moisture content region. Daily minimum temperatures also appear to increase in almost all continent regions, and obvious area is the ice shrinking area. Frost day and cold wave will decrease. The increase of surface temperature and surface absolute humidity make heat index increase. The increase of surface temperature makes cooling degree-day increase. Forecasting precipitation extremes will increase greater than average values. The strength of precipitation extremes will also increase. The frequency of extreme precipitation event will almost increase in all areas. The continent hinder land in middle latitude in summer will appear to drying direction is the consequence of the combined action of the increase of temperature and potential evaporation. The increase of the latter can not be balanced by the increase of precipitation. The consequence among future changes patterns of strength, frequency, and variability of middle- latitude windstorm are inconsistent. But the average and maximum precipitation strength of tropical cyclone are probably properly increase (Planton, Chauvin & Terray,  2008).

However, those other extreme events and phenomenon are hard to make predictions with any confidence due to lacking of data, low reliability and learn about a little particular in some phenomenon of meso-and micro-scale such as hurricane, thunderstorm, hail, etc. They are difficult to stimulate in the modern global pattern. The changes of extratropical cyclone in the future are not enough analysis result. Hence, the forecast of weather and climate extreme events is quite elementary (Helmuth, 2009).

The influences of society, economy, and environment extreme events are based on the forecast through using all kinds of statistical approachs and relative pattern which mentioned above. Because the veracity depends on the reliability of the latter, so this method is only used to as a reference in general condition. From the table 2, it is not hard to see that the changes of temperature extreme values ate probably begets the increase of crop, the loss of animal husbandry and more energies will be used to  refrigeration, human migrations and the death toll caused by high temperature weather will increase. If the frost days decreases, it will cause human migrations related to the cold decrease and the death and the cold damage crops will also decrease. Nowadays, from the whole, human could not evaluate the global warming in the future whether produce positively effects or negatively effects to the development of society and economies. It needs to make further deep research.

Conclusion

The global warming is hard to forecast accurately, and experts are only able to predict and evaluate its trend, time is the standard to examine whether the thesis of global warming, but facing the weather and climate extremes happened frequently, human beings should take swift actions to slow down its threat to human beings.

Word Cited

1. Hoerling, M. P., & Kumar, A. (1997). Origins of extreme climate states during the   1982-83 enso winter. Journal of Climate, 10(11), 2859-2870.

2. Solomon, S. (2007). Ipcc (2007): climate change the physical science   basis. American Geophysical Union, 9(1), 123-124.

3. Noji, E. K. (1991). Natural disasters. Critical Care Clinics, 7(2), 271-92.

4. Vuille, M., Bradley, R. S., Werner, M., & Keimig, F. (2003). 20th Century Climate Change in the Tropical Andes: Observations and Model Results.Climate Variability and Change in High Elevation Regions: Past, Present & Future. Springer Netherlands.

5. Planton, S., Déqué, M., Chauvin, F., & Terray, L. (2008). Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events. Comptes Rendus Geosciences, 340(9), 564-574.

6. Helmuth, B. (2009). From cells to coastlines: how can we use physiology to forecast the impacts of climate change?. Journal of Experimental Biology, 212(6), 753-60.

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