2016-12-09 来源: 51Due教员组 类别: Paper范文
Modern corporate dividends theoretical system can be divided into two categories of modern dividend theory and dividend behavior school, and their starting point and research perspective is different. The policy of modern dividend theory focus on gradually relaxing the strict assumptions of the MM theory to study the incomplete markets dividend. While dividend behavior school put itfrom view of the behavior scientific, which changes the thinking and analysis methods of traditional theory, and greatly expand the research vision of the financial scientist, taking the interpretation of the dividend puzzle into a whole new field.
(A) expectancy theory
The origin of behavioral finance has two aspects: at one hand, many empirical studies have found many visionsthat traditional theory can not explain; the other hand is about the expectations theory founded by Kahneman and Tversky.①Expectancy theory correctassumptions of conventional economics on economic people are fully rational and self-serving, and effectivelyget analysis of the psychology and economics together to better explain the behavior of people in decision-making under uncertainty , which constitutes an important basic of behavioral finance. Widely used,The theory can give a more reasonable explanation for lots of financial market visions that traditional financial theory can not explain.
1. the background and main points of the expectations theory
Expectancy theory is one of the most important behavioral decision theoryapplied to the economic research, it is also an important foundation of the behavioral finance theory. Over the years, the expected utility theory is the standard theory that explain the behavior of people in decision-making under uncertainty. However, a large number of experimental studies have shown that people will deviate from expected utility theory. As a result, economists have put many non-expected utility theory, one of the most far-reaching is the expectations theory of decision-making behavior of people under conditions of uncertainty put by the well-known behavior of financial experts, Kahneman and Tversky in 1979. The theory is that the risk attitude manifested by the people in the real economic and their decision-making based on entirely rational expected utility theory is conflict, and it point out that people do not value the judgment of risk on the absolute level of wealth, but care about the relatively changes in the wealth of a reference point. The same amount of losses weights more than the same amount of revenue in the minds of investors. People tend to exhibit risk-loving when facing the income, while they show risk aversion when facing the loss.
2.decision-making process of the expectancy theory
The decision-making process of expectations theory is divided into two stages of the editing and evaluation. Editing stage is analysis before making any decision on the possibility of different results and obtaining simplified results,while evaluation stage is that the decision-makers valuethe simplified results obtained by the editorial evaluation, and select the highest value of the case. Evaluation of the decision-makers rely on the value function and the right weighting function.
The value function the concept of utilitythe expectancy theory used to represent. People feeling the results are usually based on profit and loss, rather than the wealth of the final state. Compared to the profit and loss always need a certain reference point. Above the reference point (profit intervals), the value function is convex, indicating that decision-makers is a risk Preference; Below the reference point (loss of range), the value function is concave, indicating that policy-makers are risk averse; near reference point, there is a obvious change on the slope of the value function,indicating that people face with changes in risk attitude,that is reversal of a risk-averse and risk appetite. Therefore, the value function was S-shaped. Which shows that the subjective probability of different results by peopleis different with the actual objective probability.