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ICPSR Survey

2020-06-06 来源: 51Due教员组 类别: 更多范文

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下面为大家整理一篇优秀的essay代写范文 -- ICPSR Survey,文章讲述根据ICPSR20129月进行的CBS新闻/《纽约时报》国家民意调查(在此调查中,以下简称为ICPSR),在强势调查中,所涉及的财产是,被调查的人是否“赞成和不赞成巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)担任总统职务的方式”(ICPSR)。此外,调查中的受试者被给予了三种选择来回答这个问题。他们是:我批准;我不赞成;我不知道(DK / NA)。在ICPSR中,样本量为1301名受试者,足够确保泛化不会陷入仓促。这是因为“ 1000的样本量将使您的置信区间为+/- 3%,占2095%)的19倍(交叉验证)。而且,参与调查的人口是在全国范围内随机抽样的。使用随机数拨号(RDD)可以反映出随机性。同时,按地理区域,代码和位置大小分类了100个电话号码。电话号码包括座机和手机号码。在家庭中,被调查者是由莱斯利·基什(Leslie Kish)发起,并由查尔斯·巴克斯特罗姆(Charles Backstrom)和卡尔·赫尔什(Ceral Hursh)(ICPSR)修改的方法选择的。受访者年龄在18岁或18岁以上。他们来自不同的背景。在调查中可以反映出这一事实,即人们在以下因素方面有所不同:性别,年龄,种族,婚姻状况,教育,收入,就业状况,宗教团体,居住区,政党,政治哲学,受访者是否是茶党运动,受访者是否有孩子以及受访者是否认为自己是重生的基督徒。 (ICPSR)。

 

ICPSR Survey

 

In the strong survey, according to the CBS News/ New York Times National Poll, conducted by ICPSR in September, 2012 ( for short, in the following text, this poll is called ICPSR) the property in question is, whether people being surveyed “approve and disapprove the way Barack Obama handling his job as President” (ICPSR). In addition subjects in the survey were given three alternatives to respond to the question. They are: I approve; I disapprove; I have no idea (DK/NA). In the ICPSR, the sample size is 1301 subjects, which is large enough to ensure the generalization would not lapse into hastiness. That is because “A sample size of 1000 will give you a confidence interval of +/-3% 19 times out of 20 (95%) ( Cross Validated). What’s more, the population taking part in the survey was sampled randomly through out the nation. The randomness can be reflected by the fact that random-digit dialing (RDD) was used. In the meantime, 100 telephone numbers was stratified by geographic region, are code, and size of place. The phone numbers include both that of landlines and cell phones. In the household, individual being surveyed were selected by a method initiated by Leslie Kish and modified by Charles Backstrom and Ceral Hursh (ICPSR). The people surveyed were 18 or more than 18 years old. They are from different background. This fact can be reflected in the survey that People vary in the following factors: sex, age, race, marital status, education,  income, employment status, religious groups, residential area, political party, political philosophy, whether respondents were supporters of the Tea Party movement, whether respondents had children, and whether respondents thought of themselves as born-again Christians. (ICPSR).

Therefore, the methodology used in the survey makes a strong conclusion. Firstly, just

as what have been mentioned above, it’s size is much more than the number 1000 which is necessary for an accurate survey. As we know, the larger the size, the more accurate the representativeness of the samples would be. Thus, the possibility of hasty generalization has been wiped out. Secondly, the people been survey were dialed to respond by the researchers, which means that the possibility of self-selecting is also eliminated. In other words, the extent of people’s willingness to take part in the survey would not affect the representativeness of the survey. Thirdly, ICPSR adopted two ways to increase the representativeness of the survey—RDD and Kish method. As we know, the use of the cellphones is increasing and the use of landline phones is decrease, RDD is an efficient way to make sure that different people’s telephone preference would not bias by the survey. In addition, the distribution of telephone within a family is unequal. While someone might have more than two cellphone, the other might have only one or none. However, the Kish’s method guarantees the representativeness within the family. What surprises me is the diversity of people being surveyed. As we know, people’s spiritual or economic background might have more or less impact on their choice, this survey guarantee that people from diverse background are selected in the survey. Thus, basing on the above analysis, the survey is strong and representative enough to support its conclusion. In my point of view, the numerical value of the survey worth 8.5. The reason why I did not grade it at 9 or 9.5 is that the survey was conducted in one day, on September 1st of 2012, which would harm the representativeness of the survey. It is possible that the respondents might to too busy to be patient to answer the question on their workdays. Perhaps people’s choice might change in more than one day. Thus, though this survey is strong, it does not worth high than 8.5.

 

 

Citation:

 

CBS News/New York Times National Poll, September #1, 2012 (ICPSR 34632)

http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/icpsrweb/ICPSR/studies/34632

CrossValidated: http://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/166/how-do-you-decide-the-sample-size-when-polling-a-large-population

 

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