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Quantitative monetary policy in the United States

2018-12-06 来源: 51due教员组 类别: 更多范文

下面为大家整理一篇优秀的assignment代写范文- Quantitative monetary policy in the United States,供大家参考学习,这篇论文讨论了美国的量化货币政策。如今,美国实施了量化的货币政策,但要达到刺激美国经济复苏的效果,还需要很长的时间。在获得突破性的科技创新进展,并且这样的进展能够持续吸引大规模的生产建设投资之前,美国只能不断采取量化的货币政策来刺激经济复苏和应对失业问题。在美国经济难以复苏的条件下,美国量化货币政策产生的大量流动性,除了购买美国国债以外,都要选择国外的投资渠道,而欧洲国家的经济持续恶化,国际热钱又必然选择新兴发展中国家。

Quantitative monetary policy,美国量化货币政策,assignment代写,paper代写,北美作业代写

In 2011, China's economy will face the impact of more changes in the external environment. The expanding quantitative monetary policy of the United States and the ongoing financial crisis in European countries will make the Chinese market the main impact object of a large number of hot international speculative money. China's housing and stock markets have been manipulated by hot money from abroad in the past year, and inflation has reached a 15-year high. The impact will be even more pronounced in 2011. Currently, the use of the monetary policy of the central bank to hedge against the operation of international hot money already leaves little room for policy choices, which means that it is already inevitable to avoid inflation and financial market fluctuations, so the choice of political means and non-monetary economic policies is already inevitable. However, the use of financial and administrative means should be combined with the reform of government institutions so as to prevent the backward planning system from causing a sharp increase in social conflicts.

In China in 2011 in the face of international financial situation has two basic characteristics, is a continuous quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States, a country is the euro debt crisis deepened, they make the Chinese market into a large number of international hot money speculation preferred, China's macroeconomic regulation and control policy choice, will have to face a large number of international hot money impact and the challenge of imported inflation.

In 2009 during the financial crisis, the United States to take measures for massive fiscal input, save in serious trouble of financial institutions and large enterprises, in 2010 the United States the means of exit from fiscal policy is applied, instead of the central bank to implement quantitative monetary policy choice, intended to promote domestic investment and increase employment, speed up the recovery. The quantitative monetary policy of the United States has three basic elements. One is to continue the policy of low interest rates, keep the low interest rate of the federal funds under 0.25% unchanged, and issue long-term Treasury bonds with negative inflation-linked interest rates to lower long-term market interest rates. Second, increase the supply of credit by the central bank, encourage commercial Banks to expand credit, increase investment and improve income. Third, dollar will continue to depreciate, stimulate exports, reduce imports and improve the balance of payments. Although the macro-economic control measures of quantitative currency adopted by the United States serve the needs of its own economic goals, the special status of the dollar as an international reserve currency and as the main settlement tool of international trade determines that the monetary policy of the United States may have a huge impact on the economy of many countries around the world. First of all, the depreciation of the us dollar has led to a general rise in the international gold price, crude oil price and commodity price, which has caused cost-driven inflationary pressure on countries that mainly rely on international crude oil imports and need to import bulk commodities. Secondly, the expansion of credit by American Banks has led to a large amount of hot money flowing into emerging and developing countries, which will impact the financial markets of these countries and regions and cause severe market turbulence. Third, the devaluation of the us dollar has led to chaos in the international monetary system, triggered a series of competitive currency devaluation, and caused huge losses of foreign exchange devaluation to countries that use the us dollar as foreign exchange reserves. In 2010, with the sharp depreciation of the dollar and euro, the yen also made depreciation adjustment. It is estimated that more countries will also make currency depreciation adjustment in 2011.

China is the world's leading developing countries, the international crude oil and commodity imports are growing demand, China is the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, the dollar assets is a major form of China's foreign exchange reserves, the past two years, Hong Kong and the mainland of China securities market, the city's real estate market, once again and again by the impact of international hot money. Through commercial Banks and private investment institutions, a large amount of foreign exchange arbitrage, interest carry and arbitrage funds have entered the stock markets of Hong Kong, Shanghai and shenzhen as well as the real estate market in large and medium-sized cities. In 2011, America continued to implement the quantitative easing monetary policy, but also will have a greater impact on China's economic operation. The first is the impact of international hot money, the number of scale will exceed the past. After the influx of hot money, RMB appreciation pressure is more than ever. On the one hand, dollar, yen and euro depreciate together, forcing RMB to appreciate passively; on the other hand, more international trade disputes and international political pressure put forward demands on China to accelerate RMB appreciation. The second is the soaring price of international crude oil and resource products, which brings imported inflation to China. Modern big industry, big agriculture and service industry all have great dependence on transportation. The soaring international crude oil price leads to the increase of transportation cost in the first place. Since 2007, the price of crude oil has soared from less than 40 dollars a barrel to more than 80 dollars in 2010. The price level of agricultural and sidelinesproducts in China has been rising year by year. Transportation costs and the prices of agricultural products soared together, which directly led to the rise of living costs and labor costs. Through wages, the costs of other industries, especially construction and service industries, were affected, which had a chain reaction and resulted in the rise of the overall price level.

The influx of hot money from abroad and the speculative game in the market have not only caused inflationary pressure on China, but also created insurmountable difficulties for China's monetary policy choice.

The first is the dilemma of interest rate policy. In order to overcome the inflation caused by excessive domestic investment and the excessive speculation that drives up real estate prices, China needs to adopt the policy of raising interest rates. However, under the condition that the quantitative monetary policy of the United States leads to excessive bank liquidity and the expectation of RMB appreciation, raising interest rates in the Chinese market can only have the opposite effect. In other words, it can only attract more hot money inflows, force the people's bank of China to buy more foreign exchange in order to stabilize the exchange rate, and force the people's bank of China to release more money into the market through the channels of foreign exchange funds outstanding, so as to continue to facilitate price rises and low-level investment expansion. Since both the United States and Japan have a zero-interest rate policy, foreign Banks and individuals can easily borrow low-cost funds and turn them into hot money to enter China. As long as they are converted into RMB and deposited in Banks in China, they can earn interest margins in a safe way. And the higher China's interest rates, the wider the spread between them and those of America and Japan, and the more hot money flows in.

The second is that the yuan's exchange-rate decisions are more difficult. On the one hand, the profits of export commodities have been spread thinly, and the appreciation of RMB will reduce the international competitiveness of export commodities, resulting in the bankruptcy of many exporters. In order to protect exports, the choice of RMB appreciation needs to be abandoned. However, on the other hand, the depreciation of the us dollar leads to the high international crude oil price and commodity price. In order to reduce the cost of imports and overcome the cost-driven inflation, it is necessary to accelerate the external appreciation of the RMB, which is difficult to balance. At the same time, the management of foreign exchange reserves has become increasingly difficult. With the continuous expansion of foreign exchange reserves, the currency risk and exchange rate risk of foreign exchange assets, as well as the moral risk of foreign exchange management will be increased, exceeding the technical force of risk prevention in the current government regulatory system. In addition, the discount loss of China's foreign exchange reserves is also increasing as the depreciation of the us dollar after another leads to the devaluation of other countries' reserve currencies.

The third is that the effects of reserve policy have become increasingly short-lived. Since 2008, the people's bank of China has responded to the impact of international hot money mainly by raising the reserve requirement ratio of Banks and hedging measures of issuing central bank bonds, so as to eliminate excessive liquidity in the channels of foreign exchange funds outstanding. However, there is little policy space for further increase of reserve requirements in 2011, because after several continuous increases, the reserve ratio is now close to the limit level of 20%. Maintaining a high reserve ratio for a long time is bound to weaken the investment and lending capacity of domestic Banks, thus ceding more and more market space to foreign Banks. Foreign Banks may be more from the international financial market into the low cost of capital, make it easier to expand investment in China, support a commercial speculation up house prices in big cities in China, or make the stock market volatility, in the futures market, make a spreads and spreads, rate, completely is not affected by tightening the money supply by the people's bank of policy constraints.

The choice of monetary policy is in a dilemma, the policy effect deviates from the original intention, and the wise macroeconomic regulation and control should turn to fiscal means and non-monetary economic policy application. Including austerity measures to cope with inflation, to the tax adjustment to cope with the international hot money, including the reform of land management and urban planning, accelerate the construction of urban vegetable basket project, to reduce the reliance on the long distance transportation of agricultural products, including speeding up the adjustment of energy strategy, saving energy consumption, increase the self supply, accelerate the development of a new low-carbon energy, etc., also includes the scientific of urban planning guidance, through the relocation universities and research institutions, reduce population is concentrated in big cities, encourage and help high-level personnel to remote emerging city development, expand the market, attract population inflows, Create new development space and employment opportunities for them and solve the employment problem of the new labor force.

In 1998, in response to the impact of the Asian financial crisis, China resolutely chose measures to increase fiscal expenditure to support the reform of commercial Banks, and achieved very positive social effects. However, in the face of the impact of international hot money and imported inflation, choosing the same policy measures can only aggravate the seriousness of the problem. Because at that time, there was no quantitative easing monetary policy of the United States, European countries were enjoying economic prosperity brought by high technology, and there was no shadow of government debt crisis. At that time, China's real estate did not rise, the financial market was not open to the outside world, and only a few cars were flying on the roads. At that time, China's problem was a severe shortage of liquidity. As long as the money for fiscal expansion was deposited in Banks, it was enough to solve the liquidity shortage of Banks. But now, more than a decade later, all these external environments and internal conditions in the past have been completely changed. China now needs to solve the problem, how to stop the impact of international hot money and overcome the imported inflation, rather than the Banks' liquidity shortage, the means of fiscal policy to use to carry out the basic principles of justice, fair, open and effective, and can't still rely on the power of the planning system for black-box approach.

Quantitative monetary policy in the United States still has a long way to go before it can stimulate the economic recovery in the United States. Until breakthroughs in scientific and technological innovation can continue to attract large-scale investment in production and construction, the United States can only continue to adopt quantitative monetary policies to stimulate economic recovery and combat unemployment. Under the condition that it is difficult for the us economy to recover, the large amount of liquidity generated by the quantitative monetary policy of the us must choose foreign investment channels in addition to the purchase of us Treasury bonds. However, as the economy of European countries continues to deteriorate, the international hot money will inevitably choose emerging developing countries. Long-term a large number of international hot money into China, the influence on China, not only limited in the volatility of the stock market and rising prices, but there are problems behind inflation, including income distribution relations deteriorating, could cause a serious crash at any time, public panic and growing discontent, as well as the widening gap between rich and poor and regional disparities, they pose a serious challenge to the government's decision-making ability. If the government does not take active and effective measures to deal with these problems, it will gradually undermine the public's confidence in the government's decision-making ability and eventually shake the foundation of our republic.

The use of monetary policy to resist the impact from the external environment can only have a short-term effect. To solve long-term social and economic problems and fully improve the decision-making ability of the government to cope with international environmental changes, the only way is to adopt government reform. Under the current conditions, China's use of fiscal tightening to overcome the deficiencies of monetary policy without the support of government reform may not only be ineffective, but also lead to increasing social contradictions. Now funds for the government and institutions of administrative funds and head, accounted for the lion's share of the budget expenditure, long their route of the cadre and personnel and organization establishment work is not subject to external supervision privileges, only inflation cannot be compressed, to tighten fiscal measures, for state-owned investment subsidies also cannot reduce, the rest is agriculture, education, science and technology, health, social security, environmental protection and poverty alleviation projects, and to reduce the fiscal input, would be tantamount to giving up all long-term social sustainable development goals, lead to more and more unable to solve the social contradictions. But only if the government reform remains in discussion, and the file of propaganda stage, no government decision-making consultation and corresponding research institutions in brain substitution radical reform as a breakthrough, no maintenance for leading cadres for the constitution and performance of the social division of labor responsibility of the professional ethics requirements, not to charge requests a professional ability of the job responsibility and professional ethics supervision, asking them to actively organize and rely on responsible expert team to solve the problem of social and economic problems of various kinds of constantly emerging ideas, to really implement the task of the government reform to the concrete decision-making and action of the central government, Therefore, the current central government decision making is bound to face more and more dilemmas.

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