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Assignment代写:The risk of US Treasuries

2018-01-22 来源: 51due教员组 类别: 更多范文

下面为大家整理一篇优秀的assignment代写范文- The risk of US Treasuries,供大家参考学习,这篇论文讨论了美国国债的风险。美国国债由于以美国政府为后盾,以国家信用做担保,长期以来都被认作是一种无风险的投资品种。但最近几年,美国债券的可信度下降,前景令人担忧。原因在于美国近几年经济增长缓慢,难以支撑巨大的还债需求,当前的经济调整与政策改革前景也不甚明朗,伴随着美国自身的净资产下降和债务的日益增加,美国的偿债风险也将不断增大。

US Treasuries,美国国债,assignment代写,paper代写,留学生作业代写

Treasury bonds, backed by the U.S. government and backed by national credit, have long been recognized as a risk-free investment. Since the reform of the exchange rate system in China since 1994, with the rapid growth of foreign trade, China's foreign exchange reserves are increasing, becoming the largest foreign exchange reserves in the world, and foreign exchange reserves are mainly concentrated in U.S. Treasury bonds. According to the latest figures released by the U.S. Treasury Department in January 2016, China increased its holdings of US Treasuries by $9.7 billion trillion in November 2015, raising the total holding of US Treasuries to $1.2645 trillion trillion, still the largest U.S. creditor. How to manage this huge amount of assets and safeguard national interests has become a major problem facing our authorities.

In recent years, the global financial crisis, the outbreak of the debt crisis, the United States quantitative easing monetary policy, the U.S. bond sovereign credit rating downgrade, the debt ceiling crisis and a series of issues such as the credibility of the U.S. debt reduction, the outlook is worrying. As the biggest holder of the bond, how to evade and control the risk of US Treasuries is particularly important.

One way for the US to address fiscal and trade "double deficit" issues and safeguard domestic economic interests is to increase the issuance of the dollar and devalue the dollar. This would reduce the real debt of the United States and would not change the nominal debt owed to its creditor countries, which would lose some of its assets in the process. As the world has not yet had such a policy to protect the debt against real value, China, as the first large holding country, will undoubtedly face the risk of depreciation of the dollar. In addition, the 2011 downgrade of the U.S. bond sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA, the U.S. national Credit downgrade, the security of US debt questioned, which will inevitably affect the enthusiasm of global investors to buy US Treasuries, if the large depreciation of U.S. Treasury bonds, for our country is a big loss.

The U.S. dollar inflation is both internal and external to the United States. The US government does not have to bear any responsibility for inflation outside the home, which means the U.S. government will not mind exporting dollars in large quantities and not caring about the dollar inflation elsewhere in the country. The United States gradually realized the transfer of wealth by using the time difference and speed difference of inflation. China has become a major target for US exports of US dollar inflation, as it has increased its reliance on the US by buying a lot of US Treasuries.

Because of its strong comprehensive national strength, the United States has long been the most important world currency, including China, many sovereign countries have taken US Treasury bonds as an essential part of foreign exchange reserves. The U.S. government also relies on a large number of Treasury bonds to make up for huge funding gaps, increasing its external debt. In recent years, the U.S. economic growth has been slow, difficult to support the huge demand for debt repayment, the current economic adjustment and policy reform prospects are not clear, along with the US's own net asset decline and the increasing debt, the U.S. debt service risk will continue to increase.

Foreign investor's investment, our country's foreign debt, trade surplus, international tourism income and so on all count as our country's foreign exchange reserve. Foreign investors and domestic investors will have a regular exchange, our country in order to maintain the normal economic order, will allow foreign exchange reserves to meet the needs of the exchange. The liquidity of China's foreign exchange reserve is lower because it occupies a very high proportion of our foreign exchange reserves, and our foreign exchange reserve is relatively single. When foreign investors suddenly withdraw from our country, we will be forced to sell a large number of U.S. debt, which will trigger a sharp decline in U.S. debt prices, China will also bear the high cost of liquidity.

For a large amount of U.S. Treasury bonds, the value of the dollar must be put into the corresponding amount of renminbi, a short period of depreciation of the dollar will inevitably affect the smooth implementation of China's monetary policy. If the dollar falls, China's investment in the market before the yuan surplus, will lead to inflation. In addition, the PBOC needs to tighten monetary policy to rein in excess liquidity in order to deal with the issue of renminbi issuance by huge amounts of US Treasuries, but higher interest rates will trigger international arbitrage of the renminbi, thus affecting the effect of tighter monetary policy.

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