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The dilemma of American economic policy

2018-12-29 来源: 51due教员组 类别: Essay范文

下面为大家整理一篇优秀的essay代写范文- The dilemma of American economic policy,供大家参考学习,这篇论文讨论了美国经济政策的两难困境。在全球化背景下,美国经济政策面临着两难困境。一方面经济增长迟缓,失业率居高不下,需要继续实行扩张性政策,以刺激经济复苏;另一方面,预算赤字和政府债务不断扩大,需要尽快实施紧缩性政策,尤其是紧缩性财政政策,以恢复市场信心。要想解决这些问题,美国必须在紧缩预算的同时,继续实施扩张性货币政策以刺激经济增长,另外还要采取紧缩性政策,恢复市场信心,然后再实施扩张性政策。

American economic policy,美国经济政策,essay代写,作业代写,代写

In the background of globalization, the economic policy of U.S. is In dilemma: on one hand, the slow economic growth and high unemployment rate need expansion policies. On the other hand, the increasing budget deficit and government debt the require tightening policies to rebuild the market confidence. The Two way to get ride of the was: First, the combination of tightening and loosening policies, belong imply expansion policies to stimulate pa which reduce finance budget. Second, imply tightening policy at the first step and then turn to expansion polices, Ahead of the above mentioned polices, Expand the U.S. should expand the service export to developing countries to achieve rebalance.

Over the past 50 years, the United States has become deeply involved in the world economy. Oil is mainly imported; Top 500 companies derive 50% of their revenue from international operations. Foreign investors hold 50 per cent of government debt.

The United States has benefited greatly from globalization. As a result of trade liberalization, the United States gains more than us $1 trillion annually, which is equivalent to more than 10% of the national income and more than us $10,000 per family. But there are costs to trade liberalization. As a result of the widening trade deficit, about half a million American workers are losing their jobs each year.

Obviously, in the process of globalization, the United States is closely related to the world, and the prosperity and stability of the American economy depend on the development of the global economy. However, the us government did not realize this. They indulged the trade deficit for a long time, making the us the largest debtor country in the world, and many debts were held by foreign creditors. America's biggest creditors are now government agencies, including China, Russia and Middle East oil producers.

Many factors cause the us trade deficit: enterprise international competitiveness, decline in domestic savings rates, backward infrastructure, lack of government support for technological innovation strength, the tax system to encourage multinational companies to invest abroad rather than their own, financial support, excessive consumption, is more serious is that the dollar overvalued and fiscal deficits.

On the one hand, the United States is more and more dependent on the world economy, on the other hand, the United States has less and less influence on the world economy, which is the most serious challenge facing the United States. The proportion of the us economy in the world economy has dropped from 50% after the second world war to 20% today, and the proportion of us trade in world trade is even lower. The us dollar is still the world's major currency, but the euro challenge 10 years ago and the renminbi challenge 10 years later are likely to emerge.

In the 21st century, the balance of economic power in the world has changed dramatically. Industrialized nations such as the United States, Europe and Japan, which used to lead the world economy, are struggling to recover. At the same time, developing countries such as China and India are experiencing rapid economic growth. It is clear that the world of the twenty-first century is one of deepening polarization.

The European Union, one of the world's largest economies, has been deeply involved in the debt crisis. In fact, as a monetary union, the eurozone was unstable from the very beginning. Despite the establishment of a common currency and central bank, there was no corresponding central finance and management institution. The global financial crisis has had a great impact on the eurozone, and the recovery of eurozone countries after the crisis is fraught with difficulties. Neither the us nor the world economy is likely to get much help from the eurozone for at least the next few years.

Japan is also one of the world's largest economies, but it has experienced two "lost decades" of stagnation and deflation since the 1990s, and has yet to recover. The United States and the world economy are unlikely to get much help from Japan for some time.

The sharp contrast with Europe and Japan is the rapid economic growth of developing countries. They have provided three-quarters of global economic growth over the past decade, three times as fast as the developed world. Developing countries are likely to account for more than two-thirds of global GDP in the next decade. The financial situation of developing countries is better than that of developed countries. The ratio of debt to GDP is below the warning line of 60-100%, while some developed countries are close to 200%.

Major changes are taking place in the world economic landscape: more developing countries are joining the WTO; the IMF has twice raised the share of developing countries; The group of seven is moving toward the group of 20, a broader framework in which the United States and China form an informal but DE facto group of two.

American economic policy faces a dilemma: on the one hand, economic growth is sluggish, unemployment is high, and expansionary policies are needed to stimulate economic recovery; On the other hand, as the budget deficit and government debt continue to grow, tightening policies, especially fiscal tightening policies, need to be implemented as soon as possible to restore market confidence.

There are two ways for us economic policies to get out of the predicament. One is to mix the tight and elastic, that is, to continue the expansionary monetary policy to stimulate economic growth while tightening the budget. Second, we should first adopt a contractionary policy to restore market confidence and then implement an expansionary policy.

Whatever steps are taken, rebalancing is a prerequisite. Increasing exports and reducing the trade deficit is not only the key to rebalancing, but also the key to restoring rapid economic growth in the United States. To be specific, in the next five years, we will increase the share of U.S. exports in GDP from 10% in 2010 to 20% in 2020. This will increase the real growth rate of the United States by 0.5 percentage point every year and create 3 million to 4 million jobs.

After the crisis, international trade conflicts tend to intensify: the first area of international trade conflicts is exchange rates. As we know, the purpose of establishing the imf is to prevent sovereign states from implementing beggar-thy-neighbor policies and preventing competitive currency devaluation. However, for at least five years, China has been engaged in large-scale intervention in foreign exchange markets to slow the appreciation of the renminbi, which amounts to subsidies for exports or tariffs on imports. Because the yuan and other Asian currencies are undervalued, the dollar is overvalued by 10-20%, and eliminating that imbalance would create at least 1m jobs in America.

The second area of international trade conflict is the protection of intellectual property rights. As we know, the competition between the United States and other developed countries mainly takes place in the field of high technology and benefits from scientific and technological innovation. However, some developing countries, including China, have been using these achievements for free. In this way, China gains at least $50 billion to $100 billion annually and the United States loses at least $100 billion to $200 billion annually.

Despite the international trade conflicts and the long-term trade deficit of the United States, the United States still has its own advantages in the field of international trade. For example, America's service exports are highly competitive and have been running a trade surplus, especially in business services. The administration has failed to recognise this, and the prevailing view in the us that only a manufacturing revival can lead to a genuine recovery is mistaken. Because manufacturing currently provides only 10 percent of U.S. jobs and has been shrinking for 50 years, while services provide 25 percent of U.S. jobs and have been growing for 50 years. In the long run, manufacturing is likely to follow in the footsteps of agriculture, which accounted for 50 per cent of the us economy 100 years ago but has now fallen to 1 per cent. Since the amount of trade in services is far greater than that of manufacturing and the average wage of service industry is far higher than that of manufacturing, the service industry may replace manufacturing as the main driving force of the American economy in the future, just as manufacturing replaced agriculture as the main driving force of the American economy a century ago.

To develop trade in services, we must pay attention to developing countries. Second, expanding exports of services to developing countries will help the United States rebalance. But so far, the United States has not acted, and the U.S. government has not given high priority to trade in services in the doha round of negotiations. Part of the reason is the difficulty of opening markets for trade in services. Unlike manufacturing, which is protected by tariffs, import and export quotas and some overseas measures, The service industry mainly relies on domestic measures for protection, including industrial standards and technical standards, intellectual property protection, anti-monopoly policies, etc.

In the 21st century, while the American economy is more dependent on the world economy, it has less and less influence on the world economy. This is the root of the policy dilemma of the United States and the starting point of its policy choice.

In any case, the following choices are necessary: one is to improve the technological innovation ability and international competitiveness of American enterprises. Second, cut at least $4 trillion to $6 trillion from the budget over the next decade and implement it in phases to avoid hitting the already fragile real economy. 3 it is to stop the "currency manipulation" behavior of major trading partners, may be considered in the world trade organization against the main trading partners in violation of the rules of the "competitive devaluation" shall be not implemented, can also be performed considering the antagonistic currency intervention, such as the United States to buy the yuan to the influence of the exchange rate to offset China's purchases of dollars.

It is well known that the first wave of globalization took place in the 19th century and ended in world wars and the "great depression". One of the important reasons was that the then rapidly rising Germany and Japan failed to enter the international power center. The second wave of globalisation is likely to take place in the second half of the 20th century, when developing countries such as China and India are also rising rapidly. What will happen to the international political and economic system? This is something we need to think about in the next five, 10 or more years.

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